This storm looks like it'll be our biggest yet. Since I know all people care about is getting a snow day, I'll say right away that I think it's possible for Wednesday morning, and a long shot for Wednesday afternoon.
The more recent models are now sending the first low on a track more south and east which gives a less direct hit, which means lower totals, but this looks to be because of a second short wave trough (I haven't written about those in such a long time..) coming in behind the first. That means about 5 cm for Wednesday after the first load of snow. This is good because it improves our chances for a snow day :)
Temperatures should rise with the incoming Low. Then behind the second Low on Wednesday the temperature will fall pretty significantly over the afternoon and into the evening. ]
Just had another look and with the cold front and the direction of the winds there might be the possibility for bay effect snow on Wednesday evening too. Definitely not sure about this, it's going to take some practice before I can see the correct conditions for it, but I wanted to make a note of it.
Tuesday Feb 8th
Currently : -6 [Cloudy]
Late afternoon: -4 [Light snow]
Overnight : -2 [Heavy snow]
Winds : 50-75 km/h (later in the day)
Total snowfall (1st low; 3pm to 7am(weds)): 24cm [18-30cm]
Wednesday Feb 9th
Morning : -3 [Light snow & Blowing snow]
Afternoon: -6 [Moderate snow]
Overnight : -11 [Mostly cloudy. Possibly "bay-effect" snow]
Winds : 20-40 km/h then 50-75 km/h
Total snowfall (2nd low; 11am to 4pm): 5cm [3-7cm]
Models used: NAM, GFS, GEM
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
"Groundhog Day Storm" (Feb 3rd)
Hopefully this storm won't be too much of a dud! I don't have huge hopes of stuff being cancelled tomorrow, cause it looks like it'll be dying off between 8 am and 10 am. I don't think it'll be LESS that what I'm forecasting, hopefully it will be more. But I wouldn't count on it.
Thursday Feb 3rd
Overnight Weds/Early morning : -8 [Moderate and Heavy Snow]
Afternoon high : -5 [Mostly cloudy, flurries]
Evening : -10 [Mostly clear]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Total snowfall: 16cm [13-20cm]
Verification: Total snowfall 17cm
Thursday Feb 3rd
Overnight Weds/Early morning : -8 [Moderate and Heavy Snow]
Afternoon high : -5 [Mostly cloudy, flurries]
Evening : -10 [Mostly clear]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Total snowfall: 16cm [13-20cm]
Verification: Total snowfall 17cm
Wednesday, January 12, 2011
Finally a snow event: January 14th & 15th 2011
I was too depressed about the lack of snow to do any forecasts until now :)
Thursday will start with flurries in the early morning which will pick up into light to moderate snow in the later morning and early afternoon. This will continue into Friday morning and then fade into flurries/drizzle by Friday afternoon. Rain mixing is questionable. The GEM shows the Low staying closer to us and bringing warm air in near the end while the NAM keeps the system further out to sea and so we stay cooler. Since EC bases their forecast on GEM I'll lean towards the NAM to give a little diversity. I'll try to do an evaluation later.
Thursday Jan 14th
Early morning low : -1 [Flurries]
Afternoon high : +1 [Snow mixed with rain]
Evening : 0 [Snow]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Friday Jan 15th
Early morning low : -1 [Snow]
Afternoon high : 0 [Flurries]
Evening: -2 [Mostly cloudy]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Total precip : 12 cm [9-15 cm]
Models used: GEM regional, NAM, GFS
I used all the models this time!
Thursday will start with flurries in the early morning which will pick up into light to moderate snow in the later morning and early afternoon. This will continue into Friday morning and then fade into flurries/drizzle by Friday afternoon. Rain mixing is questionable. The GEM shows the Low staying closer to us and bringing warm air in near the end while the NAM keeps the system further out to sea and so we stay cooler. Since EC bases their forecast on GEM I'll lean towards the NAM to give a little diversity. I'll try to do an evaluation later.
Thursday Jan 14th
Early morning low : -1 [Flurries]
Afternoon high : +1 [Snow mixed with rain]
Evening : 0 [Snow]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Friday Jan 15th
Early morning low : -1 [Snow]
Afternoon high : 0 [Flurries]
Evening: -2 [Mostly cloudy]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Total precip : 12 cm [9-15 cm]
Models used: GEM regional, NAM, GFS
I used all the models this time!
Thursday, December 9, 2010
Today into Friday, December 10th
UPDATE 5:54pm The latest NAM model run is giving waaay more precip than the earlier runs, due to a strengthened system. The GEM must be too, considering EC has put up a snowfall warning.
We can expect 15-20cm of snow by 8am tomorrow depending on the changeover from rain time. The heaviest stuff will end in the morning and then we'll get flurries through to Saturday morning with an occasional bit of heavier snow bringing the total to 25cm.
---
Let's try this again :)
Today we'll get rain in the afternoon, a break, and then more rain starting this evening. The temperature will start to fall later this afternoon.
Snow will start overnight, as soon as the surface temperature gets near +1. My guess is between 1 and 2 am.
Today
Afternoon high : 7 [Rain]
Total rainfall : 10 mm [Range: 8 - 12]
Friday
Morning : 0 [Snow]
Afternoon high : 0 [Snow]
Overnight low : -3 [Flurries]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Total snowfall : 9 cm [Range: 5 - 20]
Total snowfall updated: 25 cm [Range: 20 - 30 cm]
Model used: NAM
The snowfall range is big here. Expect about 9 cm by Saturday morning, but be prepared for up to 20 in the case that the rain changes to snow earlier or the big chunk of precipitation with this system, which right now looks to be offshore to our east, ends up further west.
We can expect 15-20cm of snow by 8am tomorrow depending on the changeover from rain time. The heaviest stuff will end in the morning and then we'll get flurries through to Saturday morning with an occasional bit of heavier snow bringing the total to 25cm.
---
Let's try this again :)
Today we'll get rain in the afternoon, a break, and then more rain starting this evening. The temperature will start to fall later this afternoon.
Snow will start overnight, as soon as the surface temperature gets near +1. My guess is between 1 and 2 am.
Today
Afternoon high : 7 [Rain]
Total rainfall : 10 mm [Range: 8 - 12]
Friday
Morning : 0 [Snow]
Afternoon high : 0 [Snow]
Overnight low : -3 [Flurries]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Total snowfall updated: 25 cm [Range: 20 - 30 cm]
Model used: NAM
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Monday, November 22
We'll definitely be feeling the wind chill tomorrow.
Monday
Morning : -5 [Chance of flurries]
Afternoon high : -2 [Chance of flurries]
Overnight low : -3 [Chance of flurries]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Total precip : trace
Model used: NAM
Tuesday preview: High 2 / Flurries - NAM is giving trace but I can see the possibility of a couple centimeters. So, heads up! I'm putting winter tires on tomorrow, hopefully.
EC is giving different numbers right now (High 2 / Low -2). So I'm not sure who's right. I'll try to remember to update this with verification later.
Monday
Morning : -5 [Chance of flurries]
Afternoon high : -2 [Chance of flurries]
Overnight low : -3 [Chance of flurries]
Winds : 40-60 km/h
Total precip : trace
Model used: NAM
Tuesday preview: High 2 / Flurries - NAM is giving trace but I can see the possibility of a couple centimeters. So, heads up! I'm putting winter tires on tomorrow, hopefully.
EC is giving different numbers right now (High 2 / Low -2). So I'm not sure who's right. I'll try to remember to update this with verification later.
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Saturday, November 20th and Sunday, November 21st
I really meant to do this yesterday! The low passing us Sunday will just miss us to the south but then it seems like it'll wrap around and continue to give us clouds and a chance of flurries or the off chance some snow accumulation Monday and Tuesday.
Saturday
Afternoon high : 1 [Mostly cloudy]
Overnight low : -3 [Chance of flurries]
Winds : 20-30 km/h
Total precip : trace
Sunday
Morning : -3 [Cloudy, chance of flurries]
Afternoon high : -2 [Cloudy, chance of flurries]
Overnight low : -5 [Cloudy, chance of flurries]
Winds : 25-40 km/h diminishing in the evening/overnight
Total precip : trace
Models used: NAM
Saturday
Afternoon high : 1 [Mostly cloudy]
Overnight low : -3 [Chance of flurries]
Winds : 20-30 km/h
Total precip : trace
Sunday
Morning : -3 [Cloudy, chance of flurries]
Afternoon high : -2 [Cloudy, chance of flurries]
Overnight low : -5 [Cloudy, chance of flurries]
Winds : 25-40 km/h diminishing in the evening/overnight
Total precip : trace
Models used: NAM
Thursday, November 18, 2010
Friday November 19 + weekend preview
Friday
Morning : 4 [Cloudy, slight chance of showers]
Afternoon high : 5 [Cloudy, slight chance of showers]
Overnight low : -1 [Partly cloudy]
Winds : 35-50 km/h diminishing in the evening/overnight
Total precip : trace
Models used: NAM, GEM
Over the weekend it will be cold enough for snow. EC is calling for a high of 0 on Saturday and -2 on Sunday, which seems right at the moment. We might get some flurries on Saturday from the low passing to our east and on Sunday from the low passing to our south. The potential for more than flurries is there if these systems change track so I'll keep watch and update tomorrow and Saturday.
Morning : 4 [Cloudy, slight chance of showers]
Afternoon high : 5 [Cloudy, slight chance of showers]
Overnight low : -1 [Partly cloudy]
Winds : 35-50 km/h diminishing in the evening/overnight
Total precip : trace
Models used: NAM, GEM
Over the weekend it will be cold enough for snow. EC is calling for a high of 0 on Saturday and -2 on Sunday, which seems right at the moment. We might get some flurries on Saturday from the low passing to our east and on Sunday from the low passing to our south. The potential for more than flurries is there if these systems change track so I'll keep watch and update tomorrow and Saturday.
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