Wednesday, Thursday

UPDATE: Apparently I wasn't paying enough attention earlier so I'm editing Wednesday's forecast to make it colder.

I need to keep this up, wouldn't want to miss the first snow forecast of the year :)
(Technically we already had snow but... that doesn't count)

Also, I want to make weather icons. Like clouds and suns and snowflakes. That would be way more appealing.

Tonight
Clearing, overnight low 4  0-1
--
Wednesday
Morning :              6  3   [Sunny]
Afternoon high :   10  8  [Sunny]
Overnight low :     5    [Becoming cloudy]
Winds : 5-15 km/h
Total precip :  0 mm
--
Thursday
Morning :             8     [Drizzle, rain beginning]
Afternoon high :  12    [Moderate rain, briefly heavy]
Overnight low :    7     [Drizzle]
Winds : 20-40 km/h
Total precip : 25 mm (range 10-35 mm)

Models used: NAM

Noreaster

Missed a whole week!

Well I better do something for this weekend considering it's gonna be stormy.

Today
End of afternoon :  10
Overnight low :       7
Winds : 10 picking up to 30 km/h overnight
Total precip : 0 mm
--
Saturday
Morning :              9
Afternoon high :   11
Overnight low :    10
Winds : 30-50 km/h
Total precip :  30 mm (range 10-50mm) (I know, this is a huge range)
Drizzle starting early morning, heavy rain starting mid-late morning.
--

Sunday
Morning :             10
Afternoon high :   12
Overnight low :      8
Winds : 30-50 km/h
Total precip : 10 mm (range 5-20 mm)

Watching New England to see if they get any snow (!) as this systems heads away from them and brings some cold air down tonight/tomorrow morning.

Thanksgiving weekend overview

This thanksgiving weekend may be a bit dreary weather-wise. There's a stationary low* over Labrador and it's going to stay with us for the long weekend. It'll be generally overcast with brisk winds. Thankfully the winds won't be too cold and neither will the temperatures, and it's definitely possible that the sun could be peeking through every now and then. It doesn't look like the system has a huge amount of moisture to play with so that might reduce the clouds a good bit. With cloud cover the temperatures overnight shouldn't drop too far and we should stay between 7 and 10 for the most part.

Today
End of afternoon : 12
Overnight low :      8
Winds : 30-50 km/h
Total precip : 2 mm (range 2-5 mm)
   --
Saturday
Morning :               8
Afternoon high :    11
Overnight low :      7
Winds :  20-50 km/h
Total precip : 1 mm (range 0-5 mm)
   --
Sunday
Morning :               7
Afternoon high :     9
Overnight low :      7
Winds :  30-50 km/h
Total precip: 3 mm (range 2-10 mm)
  --
Monday
Morning :              7
Afternoon high :    10
Overnight low :     7
Winds : 20-40 km/h
Total precip: 1 mm (range 0-5 mm)

Models used: NAM, GFS

I decided to guess a precip amount and include in brackets the lower and upper limits of the precip we could get. The wind guesses are pretty sketchy.

Happy Thanksgiving!


*If you're interested in what a stationary low is, check out this animation:  - the big circle that spins and spins and never moves very far in the east or west direction is what I'm talking about (the yellow stuff is positive vorticity, you can ignore that). Usually systems like this (lows in the upper atmosphere) move roughly from west to east.

another quick and late one

Yeah these are of use to nobody right now but I need to keep it up.

Winds should start to shift from northeast to southwest sometime overnight, nearing tomorrow morning probably. Clouds are inching their way towards us too.

Since the temp now is 4 and the dewpoint's 1 with light winds I'll say it'll be able to get down to 2. Yikes.
Hard to tell when the warm air will start coming in and I'm not sure how fast it'll make a difference.

We could get some showers late tomorrow afternoon and then looks like moderate rain overnight.

Thursday October 7th
Low that could stick around until sunrise: 2
High that could persist into the evening: 10-11

Models used: NAM

So I'm basically agreeing with EC here. In fact they are saying that the temperature will rise to 14 overnight into Friday.

I'll try to make a "how am I doing" post tomorrow

quick forecast

Just a quick thing for tomorrow..

Oct 6th 2010:

Mostly sunny 

Low around sunrise or later:  5 to 6 
High late afternoon: 9

Models used: NAM 

I'll keep tonight/tomorrow morning's low at 5-6. It's currently 9 and almost clear with low winds. Might not get down too far as the dewpoint is 7 right now, at least at the airport, but the dewpoint might drop. Actually looking at it again the low might hit even after sunrise because of the cold front. The winds will be kinda cold tomorrow morning

I will start adding winds soon.

(For comparison EC's forecast is 6/10 right now)

First Forecast

This'll be WxChallenge style, sort of. It's inspired by that at least. In that I'll post forecasts daily or every second day for the day or two days coming up and then verify them later.  But why should I continue to learn about forecasting in random US cities when I can attempt to figure out St. John's?

Also, forecasting is not exact even though most people seem to pretend it is and then complain when it's wrong. I'll probably try giving ranges on my high and low temps but also times. Usually the time for a high forecast will be near the end of the afternoon while the low will be just before sunrise. Fronts and precip(itation) can change that though so I'll indicate special cases.

For precip amounts I'll probably give a range estimate like you'd see on EC only instead of indicating 'chance of showers' I'll forecast showers with the lower limit at 0, for example 0-3mm. I'll also describe timing and intensity.

Also times will be in 24h time format (complain if you hate that and I'll do am/pm) and in Newfoundland time (UTC -3:30, -2:30 during daylight savings which is in effect now - note that forecast models give time in UTC). And temperatures in Celsius.

Okay so I'll give tomorrow a go.

Tuesday October 5th:

Mix of sun and clouds

10/05 05:00 low:      7

10/05 16:00 high: 12-13

 overnight low:       5-6 

Models used: NAM

We'll be getting a cold front beginning early Wednesday so expect that day to be cold

Okay thankfully tomorrow's forecast is easy. Didn't put in much effort here, will hopefully put more into it as I progress.