Tues Feb 8th & Weds Feb 9th

This storm looks like it'll be our biggest yet. Since I know all people care about is getting a snow day, I'll say right away that I think it's possible for Wednesday morning, and a long shot for Wednesday afternoon.

The more recent models are now sending the first low on a track more south and east which gives a less direct hit, which means lower totals, but this looks to be because of a second short wave trough (I haven't written about those in such a long time..) coming in behind the first. That means about 5 cm for Wednesday after the first load of snow. This is good because it improves our chances for a snow day :)

Temperatures should rise with the incoming Low. Then behind the second Low on Wednesday the temperature will fall pretty significantly over the afternoon and into the evening. ]

Just had another look and with the cold front and the direction of the winds there might be the possibility for bay effect snow on Wednesday evening too. Definitely not sure about this, it's going to take some practice before I can see the correct conditions for it, but I wanted to make a note of it.

Tuesday Feb 8th
Currently :           -6    [Cloudy]
Late afternoon:   -4    [Light snow]
Overnight :          -2    [Heavy snow]
Winds : 50-75 km/h (later in the day)

Total snowfall (1st low; 3pm to 7am(weds)): 24cm [18-30cm]


Wednesday Feb 9th
Morning :            -3     [Light snow & Blowing snow]
Afternoon:           -6     [Moderate snow]
Overnight :         -11    [Mostly cloudy. Possibly "bay-effect" snow]
Winds :  20-40 km/h then 50-75 km/h 

Total snowfall (2nd low; 11am to 4pm): 5cm [3-7cm] 

Models used: NAM, GFS, GEM

"Groundhog Day Storm" (Feb 3rd)

Hopefully this storm won't be too much of a dud! I don't have huge hopes of stuff being cancelled tomorrow, cause it looks like it'll be dying off between 8 am and 10 am. I don't think it'll be LESS that what I'm forecasting, hopefully it will be more. But I wouldn't count on it.

Thursday Feb 3rd
Overnight Weds/Early morning :   -8   [Moderate and Heavy Snow]
Afternoon high :       -5   [Mostly cloudy, flurries]
Evening :                  -10    [Mostly clear]
Winds : 40-60 km/h 

Total snowfall: 16cm [13-20cm] 

Verification: Total snowfall 17cm

Finally a snow event: January 14th & 15th 2011

I was too depressed about the lack of snow to do any forecasts until now :)

Thursday will start with flurries in the early morning which will pick up into light to moderate snow in the later morning and early afternoon. This will continue into Friday morning and then fade into flurries/drizzle by Friday afternoon. Rain mixing is questionable. The GEM shows the Low staying closer to us and bringing warm air in near the end while the NAM keeps the system further out to sea and so we stay cooler. Since EC bases their forecast on GEM I'll lean towards the NAM to give a little diversity. I'll try to do an evaluation later.

Thursday Jan 14th 
Early morning low :   -1    [Flurries]
Afternoon high :       +1   [Snow mixed with rain]
Evening :                    0    [Snow]
Winds : 40-60 km/h

Friday Jan 15th
Early morning low :  -1    [Snow]
Afternoon high :         0    [Flurries]
Evening:                    -2    [Mostly cloudy]
Winds : 40-60 km/h

Total precip : 12 cm [9-15 cm]

Models used: GEM regional, NAM, GFS

I used all the models this time!